Interesting synopsis - I know both the UK and German systems well and feel that your summary misses the point almost entirely in both cases. The establishment parties - poignantly notionally conservative for most of the last 15 years in both countries - lost because of their espousal of appallingly badly designed policies primarily concerned with energy and immigration, repeatedly lied or misled the electorate, lost control entirely of any sense of fiscal responsibility and demonstrated a disdain for the concerns of their citizenry bordering on revulsion. In the UK the anger of the electorate came not because of the results of Brexit but because the structural changes which Brexit was set to deliver were never even attempted and hampered by a Civil Service hell-bent on undermining it. Reform leeched millions of votes from the Conservatives leading to a landslide result for Labour in the UK’s quirky first past the post system without anything approaching an enthusiastic mandate for its incoherent policy program. The rock bottom popularity of the Starmer Gov. and the revenge of the Gilt market on its economically idiotic budget is a testament to that. Equally in Germany, Angela Merkel‘s betrayal of the CDU‘s conservative principals in her bid to „overtake the Greens on the left“ misfired badly, left the CDU gutted of talent and opened the door to the Greens‘ strengthened position in a weakened SPD coalition such that it could finally execute the ideological program of decarbonisation first promised it by Schroeder. The Germans are as fed up of this socialist, idealogical deindustrialisation as they are of having their national culture stripmined by out-of-control migration as the British.
Excellent contribution! I’m glad you came out swinging the pitchfork!
I don’t disagree with either of your more granular tellings of downfall on the UK and German fronts. It’s often the case that proximity dictates the framing of the scene and its storyline. You are clearly and correctly zooming in. I’m zooming out.
I mention the UK’s need for a more secure energy system and Germany’s energy crises exacerbated by the war in Ukraine. I don’t lay full blame on the respective actors and policy choices that got them both there.
Immigration is a factor hurting economic stability, clearly putting burdens on public resources. The Brexit issue can be viewed from several angles. Some voters who wanted Brexit are very disappointed that its implementation didn’t arrive, so neither did various expected benefits. Failed execution of electoral objectives is becoming a recurring political theme around the globe. There is also a UK cohort that didn’t want Brexit, but nonetheless experienced the impact of changing trade relationships and disruptions. A significant portion of the British public now views the Brexit vote and restructuring attempt as a mistake. Surveys indicate that around 65% believe leaving the EU was the wrong decision, reflecting widespread “Bregret.” The story will have a long shadow.
My 30,000 foot view calls out voter distrust, economic dissatisfaction, and shifting coalitions as part of the sandpile distribution that is toppling government leaders. The actual grains of sand that trigger the developments are unique in each case.
I particularly like your line summarizing the losses of establishment parties based on “espousal of appallingly badly designed policies primarily concerned with energy and immigration, repeatedly lied or misled the electorate, lost control entirely of any sense of fiscal responsibility and demonstrated a disdain for the concerns of their citizenry bordering on revulsion.”
Yet, and importantly, it’s not clear that any new leader and coalition can succeed in their place. I’m pessimistic. I worry this risk of repeat political failure (a little bit everywhere all at once) is growing for reasons that are structural to the economic systems, particularly the public fiscal system. More to come in future essays.
I'm hesitant to comment as I know very little of European politics.
What I see however is society, worldwide, struggling with perceived problems, perhaps the most obvious of which are the wealth gap between the very wealthy and the "rest of us" as well as a rebellion worldwide against tyrannical government.
Fiat money worldwide risks collapse and there are a lot of fascinating signs of this strain (like the worldwide increases in the price of gold - along with the shifts to more assets being in gold and not fiat monies).
Interesting synopsis - I know both the UK and German systems well and feel that your summary misses the point almost entirely in both cases. The establishment parties - poignantly notionally conservative for most of the last 15 years in both countries - lost because of their espousal of appallingly badly designed policies primarily concerned with energy and immigration, repeatedly lied or misled the electorate, lost control entirely of any sense of fiscal responsibility and demonstrated a disdain for the concerns of their citizenry bordering on revulsion. In the UK the anger of the electorate came not because of the results of Brexit but because the structural changes which Brexit was set to deliver were never even attempted and hampered by a Civil Service hell-bent on undermining it. Reform leeched millions of votes from the Conservatives leading to a landslide result for Labour in the UK’s quirky first past the post system without anything approaching an enthusiastic mandate for its incoherent policy program. The rock bottom popularity of the Starmer Gov. and the revenge of the Gilt market on its economically idiotic budget is a testament to that. Equally in Germany, Angela Merkel‘s betrayal of the CDU‘s conservative principals in her bid to „overtake the Greens on the left“ misfired badly, left the CDU gutted of talent and opened the door to the Greens‘ strengthened position in a weakened SPD coalition such that it could finally execute the ideological program of decarbonisation first promised it by Schroeder. The Germans are as fed up of this socialist, idealogical deindustrialisation as they are of having their national culture stripmined by out-of-control migration as the British.
Excellent contribution! I’m glad you came out swinging the pitchfork!
I don’t disagree with either of your more granular tellings of downfall on the UK and German fronts. It’s often the case that proximity dictates the framing of the scene and its storyline. You are clearly and correctly zooming in. I’m zooming out.
I mention the UK’s need for a more secure energy system and Germany’s energy crises exacerbated by the war in Ukraine. I don’t lay full blame on the respective actors and policy choices that got them both there.
Immigration is a factor hurting economic stability, clearly putting burdens on public resources. The Brexit issue can be viewed from several angles. Some voters who wanted Brexit are very disappointed that its implementation didn’t arrive, so neither did various expected benefits. Failed execution of electoral objectives is becoming a recurring political theme around the globe. There is also a UK cohort that didn’t want Brexit, but nonetheless experienced the impact of changing trade relationships and disruptions. A significant portion of the British public now views the Brexit vote and restructuring attempt as a mistake. Surveys indicate that around 65% believe leaving the EU was the wrong decision, reflecting widespread “Bregret.” The story will have a long shadow.
My 30,000 foot view calls out voter distrust, economic dissatisfaction, and shifting coalitions as part of the sandpile distribution that is toppling government leaders. The actual grains of sand that trigger the developments are unique in each case.
I particularly like your line summarizing the losses of establishment parties based on “espousal of appallingly badly designed policies primarily concerned with energy and immigration, repeatedly lied or misled the electorate, lost control entirely of any sense of fiscal responsibility and demonstrated a disdain for the concerns of their citizenry bordering on revulsion.”
Yet, and importantly, it’s not clear that any new leader and coalition can succeed in their place. I’m pessimistic. I worry this risk of repeat political failure (a little bit everywhere all at once) is growing for reasons that are structural to the economic systems, particularly the public fiscal system. More to come in future essays.
Thanks for chiming in with solid comments!
Excellent additional commentary.
I'm hesitant to comment as I know very little of European politics.
What I see however is society, worldwide, struggling with perceived problems, perhaps the most obvious of which are the wealth gap between the very wealthy and the "rest of us" as well as a rebellion worldwide against tyrannical government.
Fiat money worldwide risks collapse and there are a lot of fascinating signs of this strain (like the worldwide increases in the price of gold - along with the shifts to more assets being in gold and not fiat monies).