A Trifecta of Political Losses Sweep Europe
2024 was a bad year for European incumbents
In 2024, Europe witnessed a dramatic shift in its political landscape as three of its most influential nations—the United Kingdom, France, and Germany—saw incumbent leaders ousted from power. This wave of political upheaval reflects not only national discontent but also broader, transnational challenges facing modern democracies. Economic pressures, polarization, and an erosion of trust in traditional parties emerged as common threads weaving through these political losses.
The United Kingdom: A Post-Brexit Reckoning
In the UK, the downfall of the ruling Conservative Party marked the culmination of years of post-Brexit turmoil. Economic stagnation, soaring inflation, and an overburdened healthcare system eroded public trust. The Conservative leadership, having dominated British politics for over a decade, appeared increasingly out of touch with the concerns of ordinary citizens. Voters delivered a resounding verdict in 2024, handing a resurgent Labour Party its largest victory since the Blair era (‘97-’07).
The UK’s political shake-up underscores a growing impatience with rhetoric that fails to translate into tangible improvements. Brexit’s promised dividends never materialized, leaving the electorate frustrated and disillusioned. The result was not just a rejection of Conservative leadership but a plea for new ideas and a more equitable vision for the nation.
In the United Kingdom’s 2024 general election, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party suffered a historic defeat, securing only 121 seats—their worst performance in 190 years.
Labour Party leader Sir Keir Starmer led his party to a landslide victory, winning 411 seats and achieving a strong majority. The transition of power proceeded smoothly. On July 5, 2024, Sunak conceded defeat and resigned after meeting with King Charles III. Subsequently, Starmer was invited to form a new government and was appointed Prime Minister. In his inaugural speech outside 10 Downing Street, Starmer emphasized his commitment to “national renewal” and restoring public trust in politics.
Since taking office, Starmer's administration has focused on implementing its “Plan for Change,” which includes milestones aimed at raising living standards, reforming public services, and securing a more secure energy system. However, the government faces significant challenges, including economic stagnation, persistent inflation, and the need to rebuild public trust.
Additionally, the rise of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party presents a new dynamic in British politics, potentially influencing future policy directions.
For charts that show various UK challenges, here is a link to John Rubino’s fresh essay, The UK’s Strange Collapse.
France: Macronism’s Collapse
Across the Channel, Emmanuel Macron’s leadership faced its ultimate test—and failed. While Macron’s presidency initially represented a fresh, centrist approach to French politics, by 2024, his government was mired in controversies over pension reforms, strikes, and a widening wealth gap. The rise of both far-right and far-left forces further fragmented France’s political spectrum, eroding Macron’s base and paving the way for a bitterly contested legislative election.
Elected in 2017 on a promise to rejuvenate French politics, Macron’s popularity nosedived after he began to govern in a so-called “Jupiterian” fashion. He loosened labour rules by decree, cut housing allowances and raised fuel taxes while defiantly defending his security guard who beat up protesters.
His perceived arrogance soon created deep resentment across the country, which erupted in 2018-2019 with the “yellow vest” crisis. What began as a revolt against rising fuel prices soon morphed into a seven-month challenge to Macron’s authority.
After being re-elected in 2022 after Russia launched its war on Ukraine, Macron’s raising of the pension age using executive constitutional powers to bypass parliament further damaged his reputation among working-class and middle-class voters.
Aides said Macron believed voters would overlook his unpopularity and instead focus on his economic record. Alexandre Holroyd, a former lawmaker in the National Assembly, said Britain’s Brexit vote should have served as a warning against such thinking.
Yet Macron didn’t just misjudge how low his stock had fallen among voters, three sources said. He underestimated the left’s ability to put aside its differences on issues like Gaza and antisemitism to form a united front against the far right.1
In France’s July 2024 legislative elections, President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance, Ensemble, suffered significant losses, securing only 161 seats in the National Assembly. This outcome led to the resignation of Prime Minister Gabriel Attal on July 16th. The left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) alliance, a coalition formed to counter the rising far-right, emerged as the largest bloc with 188 seats. Despite this, the NFP fell short of the 289-seat majority required to unilaterally form a government, resulting in a hung parliament.2
In France, the president’s greatest power is the ability to choose the prime minister, who governs domestic affairs through the legislative assembly. However, since it is the French National Assembly that has the sole power to dismiss the prime minister’s government, the president is basically forced to name a prime minister who can gain the support of a majority in the assembly. Macron decided to install Michel Barnier as the new prime minister.
France’s political shift reflects a broader European trend: the middle ground is shrinking. Macron’s inability to bridge the ideological divide left the electorate polarized and yearning for change. His defeat highlights the fragility of centrist politics in an era of mounting populist and progressive movements.
The No-Confidence Vote
In late 2024, France experienced significant political upheaval following a successful vote of no confidence against Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s months-old government. This marked the first time since 1962 that a French government was toppled by such a motion. It also created the shortest tenure of a prime minister of the Fifth Republic, at just under 100 days in office.
Background
After the early legislative elections in July 2024 resulted in a hung parliament, President Emmanuel Macron appointed Michel Barnier, a prominent figure from The Republicans (LR), as Prime Minister on September 5, 2024. Barnier’s government, lacking an absolute majority in the National Assembly, was compelled to seek support from other parties to pass legislation.
The No-Confidence Motion
The tipping point came when Barnier’s administration invoked Article 49.3 of the French Constitution to pass the 2025 budget without a parliamentary vote. This maneuver, intended to expedite the budget’s approval, allowed opposition parties to table a motion of no confidence. In response, the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) alliance, comprising La France Insoumise, the Socialist Party, the Greens, and the Communists, introduced such a motion. The far-right National Rally (RN) party, led by Marine Le Pen, also supported the motion, creating an unprecedented alliance between the far-left and far-right. This is a prime example of a people’s horseshoe alliance forming to challenge status quo establishment politics coming from the center.
The collaboration underscores the complexities of France's current political environment, where traditional party lines are increasingly blurred in the face of emerging populist movements.
Outcome and Implications
On December 4, 2024, the National Assembly passed the motion of no confidence with 331 votes in favor, surpassing the required 289-vote threshold. This led to the immediate resignation of Prime Minister Barnier and his cabinet, making his tenure the shortest in the history of the French Fifth Republic.
President Macron, addressing the nation, criticized the alliance between the NFP and RN, labeling it an “anti-republican front” that chose “disorder.” He emphasized his commitment to serving out his term until 2027 and announced plans to appoint a new prime minister capable of navigating the fragmented parliament. François Bayrou of the MoDem party was appointed to be Prime Minister on December 13, 2024.
Aftermath
The collapse of Barnier’s government plunged France into a political crisis, with challenges in forming a stable government amid a deeply divided National Assembly. The situation underscored the complexities of French politics, where traditional party lines have been shifting, and the electorate's frustrations have led to alliances that were previously unimaginable.
As France navigates this turbulent period, the need for political cooperation and effective governance remains paramount to address the pressing economic and social issues facing the nation. Just as in the UK, the mental models of left, right, and center are failing to deliver policies that are gaining the broad approval of working citizens.
Germany: Scholz’s Unfinished Legacy
In Germany, Olaf Scholz’s coalition government fell victim to economic uncertainty and energy crises exacerbated by the war in Ukraine. Despite efforts to steer the nation through a turbulent period, Scholz’s administration struggled to communicate a clear and cohesive vision. Rising dissatisfaction among younger voters and a resurging far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party undermined Scholz’s leadership, leading to an electoral shift that favored more radical voices on both sides of the political spectrum.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz was effectively ousted following a failed vote of confidence in the Bundestag on December 16, 2024. This development was precipitated by the collapse of his three-party coalition government, known as the “traffic light coalition,” which included the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Greens, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP).
Coalition Collapse
The coalition’s disintegration began on November 6, 2024, when Chancellor Scholz dismissed Finance Minister Christian Lindner, the leader of the FDP, due to irreconcilable disagreements over economic policies. Lindner’s dismissal led the FDP to withdraw from the coalition, leaving the SPD and the Greens to operate as a minority government.
Vote of Confidence and Snap Election
In response to the government’s instability, Scholz announced his intention to seek a vote of confidence, which took place on December 16, 2024. The motion required an absolute majority of 367 votes to pass but failed, with only 207 votes in favor and 394 against.3 Following this defeat, President Frank-Walter Steinmeier dissolved the Bundestag on December 27, 2024, and scheduled snap federal elections for February 23, 2025.
As part of the swirling political realignment in Germany, the far-right is picking up noticeable interest from Elon Musk. On his public journey to platforming Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD), Musk has frequently amplified the online content of one young supporter of the party—climate change and COVID-19 lockdown skeptic Naomi Seibt. Seibt is currently traveling in the U.S. in the run-up to Trump’s January 20th inauguration, crashing at the homes of other political influencers on X.4
This sequence of events underscores the challenges faced by coalition governments in maintaining unity amid policy disputes and sets the stage for a potentially transformative election in early 2025.
The German experience highlights the challenges of coalition politics in addressing existential crises. Scholz’s downfall underscores a critical lesson: incrementalism and compromise often falter in the face of growing public demand for decisive action on environmental policy, social inequality, and geopolitical threats.
Common Themes: Economic Anxiety and Political Fragmentation
Across the UK, France, and Germany, the fall of national leaders was driven by a potent combination of economic anxiety and political fragmentation. Persistently high inflation, the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine placed immense pressure on governments to deliver stability and prosperity. Yet, in all three countries, voters felt that leadership had fallen short.
Another common thread is the decline of trust in traditional political institutions. In an age of rapid information dissemination and widespread skepticism, leaders who failed to adapt to new forms of political engagement found themselves outmaneuvered by insurgent parties and movements. This political fragmentation has made governing increasingly difficult, with coalition-building and compromise appearing ineffective in addressing urgent challenges.
A Warning to Europe & Beyond
The trifecta of political losses in 2024 serves as a warning to other European leaders. Economic challenges, social polarization, and a disenchanted electorate are not unique to these three nations. If anything, they are emblematic of a broader crisis facing liberal democracies worldwide. To avoid similar fates, leaders must prioritize transparency, accountability, and bold action to address the pressing concerns of their citizens.
Apparently, Justin Trudeau, the Prime Minister of Canada, succumbed to similar discontent in the early days of this new year. He announced his resignation on January 6th. Trudeau will stay in office until his Liberal Party can choose a new leader, and the parliament is suspended until March 24th. Liberals will choose a new leader to take the party into the next election, which must be held on or before October 20th.5
There is one critical element that may be hindering the ability of any party or coalition to address the pressing concerns of citizens from nation to nation. We are living on a 20th century operating system of economic tools that may be incapable of producing widespread economic gains, affordable living, and social stability. If that is true, and future essays will address this topic around ideologies and operating systems, then every election may be met with discontent until some new innovation for the political economy arrives.
As the dust settles on 2024 and 2025 begins with continued chaos, the political future of Europe remains uncertain. Will these upheavals pave the way for renewal and reform, or will they deepen existing divides? One thing is clear: the political losses sweeping Europe signal a demand for change that leaders can no longer afford to ignore.
Notes:
The Common Sense Papers are an offering by Common Sense 250, which proposes a method to realign the two-party system in the United States with the creation of a new political superstructure that circumvents the current dysfunctional duopoly. The goal is to heal political divisions and reboot the American political system for an effective federal government.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/frances-macron-sees-off-far-right-threat-dilutes-his-power-2024-07-08/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://www.politico.eu/article/france-election-results-2024-map-constituencies-emmanuel-macron-marine-le-pen-live-new-popular-front-national-rally/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://www.thetimes.com/world/europe/article/olaf-scholz-confidence-vote-german-parliament-x3hfgvqct?utm_source=chatgpt.com®ion=global
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/meet-influencer-who-has-musks-ear-germanys-far-right-2025-01-09/
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c878ryr04p8o
Interesting synopsis - I know both the UK and German systems well and feel that your summary misses the point almost entirely in both cases. The establishment parties - poignantly notionally conservative for most of the last 15 years in both countries - lost because of their espousal of appallingly badly designed policies primarily concerned with energy and immigration, repeatedly lied or misled the electorate, lost control entirely of any sense of fiscal responsibility and demonstrated a disdain for the concerns of their citizenry bordering on revulsion. In the UK the anger of the electorate came not because of the results of Brexit but because the structural changes which Brexit was set to deliver were never even attempted and hampered by a Civil Service hell-bent on undermining it. Reform leeched millions of votes from the Conservatives leading to a landslide result for Labour in the UK’s quirky first past the post system without anything approaching an enthusiastic mandate for its incoherent policy program. The rock bottom popularity of the Starmer Gov. and the revenge of the Gilt market on its economically idiotic budget is a testament to that. Equally in Germany, Angela Merkel‘s betrayal of the CDU‘s conservative principals in her bid to „overtake the Greens on the left“ misfired badly, left the CDU gutted of talent and opened the door to the Greens‘ strengthened position in a weakened SPD coalition such that it could finally execute the ideological program of decarbonisation first promised it by Schroeder. The Germans are as fed up of this socialist, idealogical deindustrialisation as they are of having their national culture stripmined by out-of-control migration as the British.
I'm hesitant to comment as I know very little of European politics.
What I see however is society, worldwide, struggling with perceived problems, perhaps the most obvious of which are the wealth gap between the very wealthy and the "rest of us" as well as a rebellion worldwide against tyrannical government.
Fiat money worldwide risks collapse and there are a lot of fascinating signs of this strain (like the worldwide increases in the price of gold - along with the shifts to more assets being in gold and not fiat monies).