Election Reflections 2024: Trump Won, Now What?

Part 3

Election Reflections 2024: Trump Won, Now What?

In the words of vice president-elect, JD Vance, “I think that we just witnessed the greatest political comeback in the history of the United States of America.” This statement made during the election night victory speech of Donald J. Trump came with delight to some and great disappointment to others. Prior to Trump, only President Grover Cleveland (#22/#24, 1885-89 & 1893-97) pulled off a comeback attempt by winning a non-consecutive term.

With over a month now passed since the election of Trump to be the 47th president of the United States, and the realization that Republicans have slight control of both houses of Congress, we can review the rundown of the narrative that explains his “greatest political comeback.”

How did Donald Trump win? Let me count the ways…

Donald Trump's victory in the November 2024 U.S. election can be attributed to several key factors based on available information:

1. Economic Concerns:

High inflation rates and the lingering effects of economic recovery post-COVID were significant issues. Despite improvements in some economic indicators, the public perception was that living costs, particularly housing, remained high, which resonated with Trump's economic promises.

2. Immigration:

Trump’s hardline stance on immigration seemed to appeal to voters, especially those concerned about border security and the perceived impacts of immigration policies under the Biden administration. His campaign capitalized on this sentiment, offering a clear contrast to his opponent’s policies.

3. Voter Demographics and Shifts:

There were notable demographic shifts, with Trump making significant inroads among Hispanic voters and young men across racial lines. This expansion of his voter base was crucial in key battleground states and helped him secure a broader coalition than in previous elections.

4. Public Dissatisfaction with the Incumbent:

Joe Biden’s low approval ratings and the public’s dissatisfaction with the Democratic administration’s performance, particularly on issues like crime, international policy, and economic management, played into Trump’s favor. Kamala Harris, as the Democratic nominee, struggled to distance herself from Biden’s record.

5. Campaign Strategy:

Trump’s campaign was relatively drama-free, managed effectively by his team, which included leveraging modern media platforms like podcasts, influenced by advisors like Barron Trump and Alex Bruesewitz. This approach allowed him to connect with voters on a personal level and through non-traditional media.

6. Security and Law and Order:

Promises of restoring law and order, coupled with a narrative of strength against perceived threats, both domestic and international, appealed to voters who felt insecure about crime rates and global stability.

7. Turnout and Voter Enthusiasm:

Early voting data suggested a stronger turnout among Republican voters, indicating higher enthusiasm for Trump. This was reflected in polls showing him performing better than his 2020 polling numbers.

8. Cultural and Social Issues:

Trump’s campaign successfully framed several cultural and social debates in a way that mobilized his base, focusing on issues like education, crime, and identity politics, where he presented himself as a defender of traditional values against progressive changes.

9. Media and Misinformation:

While not necessarily a direct reason for his win, the media environment, including the spread of misinformation and how it was perceived by different voter groups, could have influenced voter perceptions and decisions.

These points are drawn from a combination of post-election analyses, voter sentiment found on platforms like X, and broader media coverage, illustrating the multifaceted reasons behind Trump’s electoral success in 2024.

Is That the Whole Story of How Trump Won?

The above summary is enough to explain the victory of Trump, but more granular details help paint the picture. Let’s consider a few running narratives.

Poetic Justice & Lawfare Gone Rogue—Trump faced numerous legal and political challenges, including felony convictions and assassination attempts. His victory can be seen as poetic justice from the perspective of his supporters who viewed these challenges as attempts by political adversaries to unjustly hinder his political career. His ability to overcome these obstacles and return to power might be seen as a form of vindication or justice served against those who tried to “keep him down.”

Some see Trump’s victory as poetic justice in the sense that it contrasts sharply with the performance of Joe Biden’s administration. Many voters felt that Biden’s term did not meet expectations or was marked by significant challenges. Trump’s return could be viewed as a just correction of political course, rewarding Trump’s previous term achievements or promises over Biden’s perceived failures.

Given the legal battles Trump faced, his election could be considered poetic justice by those who believe these legal actions were politically motivated. His win can be seen as a rejection of these legal attempts to sideline him, providing a poetic twist where the public essentially decided his fate rather than the courts.

Tech Bros Coming to the Rescue—Elon Musk began to publicly and significantly support Trump in the race following an assassination attempt on July 13, 2024. Musk, angered over free speech issues (“government-approved narratives”) and the government regulatory burden, brought significant resources to the race as the final stages intensified. Musk spent over $250 million to back Trump and Republican efforts. Most of the money went to America PAC, which conducted the robust ground game on Mr. Trump’s behalf.

Marc Andreessen began openly supporting Donald Trump in July 2024. Andreessen announced his support for Trump on July 16, 2024, via a podcast episode of “The Ben & Marc Show” with his co-founder Ben Horowitz. His reasons were primarily centered around policies that he believed would benefit the tech sector, especially the startup ecosystem. Andreessen was particularly vocal about his opposition to the Biden administration’s approach to cryptocurrency regulation, which he described as a “brutal assault on a nascent industry.” The proposal by Biden to tax unrealized capital gains was described by Andreessen as “the final straw” leading to his endorsement of Trump. He argued that this would make startups “completely implausible,” as it would impose significant tax burdens on venture capitalists’ equity stakes. Andreessen also cited “alarming” meetings with the Biden administration where officials suggested that there would be no room for new AI companies due to regulatory capture similar to practices by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). This solidified his decision to support Trump. Andreessen’s endorsement was not just a personal choice but part of a broader trend among some Silicon Valley leaders, the Tech Bros, who felt that the Biden administration’s policies were stifling innovation.

Preaching to the working class—During his 2024 presidential campaign, Donald Trump primarily preached to four somewhat overlapping groups.

White Working-Class Voters: Trump’s messaging continued to resonate with this demographic, focusing on economic nationalism, job repatriation, and opposition to globalization and immigration policies perceived to disadvantage American workers.

Non-College-Educated Voters: His appeal extended to voters without college degrees across various racial groups, including significant gains among Latino and Black voters, particularly among men. His campaign emphasized economic issues like tariffs, protectionism, and promises to revive manufacturing jobs.

Union and Blue-Collar Workers: Despite his anti-union policies in the past, Trump made efforts to appeal to union members by criticizing Democratic policies and promising to protect jobs through trade policies, although this was met with mixed reception among union leadership.

Rural and Small-Town America: Trump’s campaign focused on rural voters, promising to support agriculture, manufacturing, and the energy sector, particularly through deregulation and protectionist trade policies.

Alliance with Kennedy/MAHA Independents—Trump benefited from Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s support in several key ways during the 2024 election. Kennedy’s endorsement of Trump likely swayed a portion of his supporters. Polls suggested that between 36% to 64% of Kennedy’s voters would have chosen Trump in a two-way race if Kennedy wasn’t in the contest. This indicates a significant portion of his voters were more aligned with Trump’s positions than with Harris’s. Kennedy announced he would remove his name from the ballot in battleground states where his presence might have acted as a spoiler for Trump. This strategic withdrawal potentially prevented vote splitting which could have benefited Harris.

The endorsement provided Trump with a boost in media coverage and campaign momentum. Kennedy’s support was not just symbolic; he and Trump had discussed policy alignment, particularly on health (MAHA—Make America Healthy Again) and environmental issues. Trump even promised to create roles or commissions where Kennedy could influence policy, further cementing their alliance. Finally, Kennedy’s volunteers and supporters engaged in various grassroots efforts like creating PACs, tabling, and phone banking to support Trump’s campaign, which likely had a tangible impact on voter turnout in crucial areas. More will be said about Kennedy in Parts 6 and 7 of these Election Reflections.

And we could go on…

Now What—Can He and His Administration Govern?

Trump has promised to enact an agenda that will transform nearly every aspect of the federal government. He has promised to launch the largest deportation effort in America’s history. He is threatening reverse lawfare to punish his enemies. He plans to expand the use of tariffs, which may drive the price of imported goods higher or lead to substitution effects that are inflationary. Trump will press foreign leaders to accept more of his America First agenda. Lastly, the Trump administration will be heavily focused on streamlining government via DOGE—The Department of Government Efficiency.

What will be difficult? Almost all of it. The vision, process, and style will likely be combative and not suited to the normal workings of slow-moving government change.

Several of Trump’s key promises are at odds with his desire to move the stock market higher as the barometer of his success. Tariffs will be met with resistance by foreign nations and could elicit a trade war. A strengthening dollar could impact the ability of U.S. companies to export, creating an economic drag for some multinational firms. Deportations would dramatically impact the construction and agricultural sectors that use migrant labor at cheap rates. Cutting government spending is a form of austerity that would hurt corporate profits and negatively impact the labor market. It’s not clear if Trump is willing to enact economic pain for structural changes that he has promised.

Trump’s vision is a complicated mix involving multiple key figures, such as Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, who are backing DOGE. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is championing a transformational health agenda. JD Vance is focused on the working class and industrial policy. Many players want to target Biden operatives who have championed race & gender policies that conservatives don’t want. Retribution, deregulation, and immigration reform will all get attention.

Conclusion

Yes, Trump won the election for many reasons.

With the promises being as big and grand as Trump likes to make them, a fair dose of skepticism is warranted about what Trump will actually accomplish.

Does Trump have a mandate? Not in the proper sense of the term, but many Americans want a change from the status quo in economic and cultural areas.

The many promises and the cost to get there will face the hard reality of governing during a time of division. If Democrats agree to tackle ideas that are broadly popular, then the chance of success goes up.

Notes:

The Common Sense Papers are an offering by Common Sense 250, which proposes a method to realign the two-party system with the creation of a new political superstructure that circumvents the current dysfunctional duopoly. The goal is to heal political divisions and reboot the American political system for an effective federal government.