Election Reflections 2024: The RFK Jr. Impact (1 of 2)
Part 6
Election Reflections 2024: The RFK Jr. Impact
The decision to run for President of the United States is practically absurd. The impetus to run is often a mix of desire to effect change, leadership ambition, ego/legacy ambition, representing key ideals/values, and shaping party/political influence. Many past winning and losing major candidates can be ranked across how much each factor drove the will to run.
Let’s Talk about Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and the 2024 Presidential Race
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is the son of Robert F. Kennedy, the former Attorney General of the United States (1961-1964), U.S. Senator for New York, and assassinated Democratic presidential candidate in 1968. He is also a nephew to President John F. Kennedy. By occupation, Kennedy has been an environmental attorney and anti-pollution advocate for much of his career.
Why Did Kennedy Jump Into the Presidential Race?
There are three strands of thought that all seem valid as to why Kennedy, who had no previous experience in elected office but had a powerful family name and many connections, chose to launch a presidential bid. Let’s tackle all three:
To reform the Democratic Party (at the outset)
Due to internal polling that suggested his name favorability might have broad appeal beyond party politics
Correct major issues going unaddressed in America
The strongest factors driving Kennedy to enter the race were shaping political party influence, representing key ideals/values, and a desire to effect massive change for the country.
Reform the Democratic Party
The desire to reform the Democratic Party was a weak driver in the early campaign launch. It was best articulated by the early campaign manager and former Ohio Congressman, Dennis Kucinich. Here is part of his intro on Kennedy at the Boston Plaza Hotel (April 19, 2023):
Hi, I’m Dennis Kucinich, and I’m a Kennedy Democrat. And what is a Kennedy Democrat? A Kennedy Democrat fearlessly protects the rights of working men and women. A Kennedy Democrat protects the Constitution of the United States. A Kennedy Democrat defends American civil liberties and the rights of all the people. A Kennedy Democrat believes in the power of diplomacy when the fate of not only our nation, but the Earth itself, hangs in the balance. A Kennedy Democrat meets adversity to seek unity. A Kennedy Democrat is unbought and unbossed. And a Kennedy Democrat puts country ahead of self…. And under the dynamic leadership of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., we will restore the Democratic Party, and we will restore the United States of America. We will work with Republicans and all Americans, in the words of Lincoln, to bind up our nation’s wounds. Under the healing leadership of a President Robert F. Kennedy Jr., we will become a truly re-United States through faith in America, through good works, and strength through peace.1
Kennedy saw the party as badly off course. But he also saw the country as off course. Fixing both would hinge on running a robust populist platform movement. As Kennedy endured censorship of his speech on various topics over more than a decade, especially his COVID-19 views, he wanted to champion free speech where the Democratic party was failing (the party of cancel culture). He also felt the party had become so corporate that the working class was being left behind. But even though he bears one of the most famous political names in America, he wasn’t much of a party insider. For this reason, some newspapers that announced his bid called it a dark-horse challenge to the sitting President. Remember, dark horses are different than underdogs. Dark horse candidates have a fighting chance to shake things up and challenge the top contenders. Underdogs are just a long shot that is expected to lose.
Internal Polling
Team Kennedy’s independent campaign manager and daughter-in-law, Amaryllis Kennedy, revealed on multiple occasions the internal discussion that led Kennedy to consider launching his bid. She made reference to a reputable polling firm that floated names through surveys to see who in the American political sphere had enough name recognition to be perceived as a viable candidate for the White House. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. fit the distinction with surprisingly high numbers given his lack of experience in elected office. This data allowed the family and Bobby’s inner circle to nudge him to take on the battle of being a primary challenger to President Joe Biden.
Address Major Issues in America
Here is a summary of the key points explaining why Robert F. Kennedy Jr. launched his campaign for the presidency of the United States:
Ending the Merger of State and Corporate Power: Kennedy emphasized the need to dismantle the corrupt union of government and corporate interests, which he viewed as imposing “corporate feudalism,” hollowing out the middle class, poisoning the environment, and perpetuating endless wars.
Reducing Polarization: He highlighted the toxic divisions in the U.S. and aspired to unite Americans by focusing on shared values rather than differences, drawing parallels to his father’s and uncle’s unifying campaigns.
Truth and Accountability: Kennedy sought to restore trust in government and media by prioritizing transparency and combating the culture of censorship and misinformation.
Environmental Advocacy: With a strong background in environmental protection, Kennedy committed to implementing policies that balance economic and ecological interests, rejecting the false choice between prosperity and environmental health.
Fighting Chronic Diseases: He identified the rising prevalence of chronic illnesses as a crisis caused by environmental factors and promised to prioritize public health by investigating and addressing these causes.
Opposition to Endless Wars: Kennedy critiqued U.S. foreign policy, particularly its focus on military interventions, and called for a shift to diplomacy, reducing military expenditures, and investing in domestic priorities like the middle class.
Economic Justice: He condemned policies that favor the wealthy at the expense of the poor and middle class, particularly during events like the COVID-19 lockdowns, which he claimed led to a massive transfer of wealth to the elite.
Revitalizing American Democracy: Kennedy aspired to restore democratic institutions by reforming bureaucratic agencies captured by corporate interests and creating policies that genuinely serve the public.
Historical Inspiration: Drawing on his family’s legacy, Kennedy emphasized the importance of social justice, equality, and fighting for marginalized communities, citing his father’s and uncle’s achievements as guiding principles.
Vision for Leadership: Kennedy acknowledged his unconventional path and skeletons in his closet but framed his candidacy as a response to extraordinary times, with a commitment to serving the underserved and transforming the Democratic Party.
The Boston kickoff speech outlined his campaign’s central themes: anti-corruption (regarding federal agency regulatory capture), unity, environmental stewardship, public health, economic reform, and an end to war. As the campaign unfolded, it became clear that the biggest motivating factor to be in the race was wanting to effect change on key American values that he felt were being lost by the divisive politics of the day.
Why Did Kennedy Pivot Independent?
The Kennedy campaign did early work on the electoral college strategy to win primary voters. The handful of states that set the early tone before Super Tuesday were receiving the major focus—states like New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada, and Michigan.
As the race unfolded in the middle of 2023, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) began to adjust rules and processes for presidential primary elections. The DNC started to threaten that candidates who stepped foot in New Hampshire or Iowa to campaign would be disqualified from primary votes in those states.2 Seeing no fair way to pursue the Democratic Primary (no debates with Biden, rigged primary rules, and blackout media coverage), Kennedy swung for the nuclear option: a full 50-state independent run for President of the United States.
Side Note: The DNC Played Dirty Lawfare with No Labels
The Democratic National Committee (DNC) took several actions that indicated targeting the centrist reform group, No Labels, due to its efforts to run a unity ticket for the 2024 presidential race. Here are some key events:
Legal and Political Challenges: No Labels faced legal actions in various states, including Arizona where the Democratic Party contested No Labels' status as a third party, accusing it of being a "dark money" group. In Maine, the Democratic secretary of state sent letters to residents who signed up with No Labels to ensure their intent was genuine, suggesting an effort to challenge No Labels' ballot access.
Public Criticism and Campaigns: Democrats publicly criticized No Labels, with figures like Virginia Representative Don Beyer calling the effort “bizarre” and suggesting it would only serve to reelect Donald Trump. There were concerted efforts from Democratic-aligned groups like Third Way and MoveOn to discourage the No Labels campaign, which included ads, op-eds, and direct meetings, according to documents revealed in a legal discovery process.
Internal Strategy: The DNC’s release of the 2024 party platform draft and the subsequent rules for the presidential nomination process could be seen as an indirect strategy to consolidate Democratic support and counter third-party movements like No Labels. The DNC’s emphasis on a united Democratic Party with a nominee representing its values might have been aimed at undermining third-party efforts.
Public Statements and Pressure: Public statements from Democrats and liberal activist groups exerted pressure on No Labels to abandon its unity ticket bid, primarily due to concerns that it would siphon votes from President Biden, especially in battleground states. This pressure was evident with the organization facing significant challenges in candidate recruitment, which some attributed to Democratic opposition.
These actions collectively illustrate a strategic effort by the DNC and associated groups to challenge the No Labels initiative, viewing it as a potential spoiler that could split votes in the 2024 presidential election. Kennedy got the same shaft as an independent seeking 50-state ballot access.
The failure of Joe Biden to withdraw on an early timeline, the gaslighting episode around his health, and the undemocratic tactics to disenfranchise voters from having other choices began to damage the Democratic brand as being good for democracy.
What Talking Points Framed the Independent Team Kennedy Campaign?
A list of top policy priorities for RFK Jr. was listed on the Team Kennedy website and shared on social media. The narratives that painted the political failures of both major parties were on display as Kennedy held rallies and made consistent podcast tours during his independent run. The top ten policy items were as follows:
To free government from the corrupt influence of mega-corporations and Wall Street.
To end the “forever wars” and restore the military to its proper role of defending the homeland.
To redirect the trillions we spend on global military dominance to the rebuilding of America’s infrastructure, economy, and middle class.
To repair the economic devastation that has spread across Black, rural, small-town, Rust Belt, minority, and Farm Belt communities.
To secure the border.
To restore and protect our Constitutional freedoms.
To end government censorship, surveillance, and secrecy, and bring transparency to government.
To address the chronic disease epidemic in America.
To clean up the toxic pollution in our soil, air, and water, and protect our wilderness areas.
To cut inflation and housing costs, shrink the deficit, and reduce the debt burden on American families.
Did Kennedy Have a Chance? Option 1, 2, or 3?, The Spoiler Press Conference
On May 1, 2024, Team Kennedy held a press conference in Brooklyn, New York to outline nationwide polling conducted by the campaign during April.3 It was a bold tactic, and some campaign insiders were surprised the campaign was willing to release so much data that could be used to shape internal strategy. First, the polling was large, leading to margin of error of only 0.6%.4
Second, the polling was done to check three head-to-head races, rather than just one three-way race. The insights from head-to-head matchups showed the potential of new coalitions to emerge within states not viewed as swing states in the Electoral College. The insights from the polling: Biden was too old to run, Trump would beat Biden, Kennedy would beat Biden, and Kennedy could beat Trump. BOOM! By definition of such a scenario, the sitting president becomes the spoiler in the race.
Here are maps from April 2024:
The analysis showed that Kennedy running head-to-head with Trump would flip 5 Trump states to Kennedy: Utah, Iowa, Georgia, Virginia, and Maine. In fact, looking at three-way races at the time, Kennedy was best positioned to make up ground in order to win Utah, Iowa, and Maine. Kennedy played a dramatic card during the press conference issuing a No Spoiler Pledge challenge to President Biden.
The Spoiler Pledge: Both parties agree to co-fund a 50-state poll in mid-October 2024 of 30,000+ likely voters. The survey will test the results of a head-to-head race pitting President Biden against President Trump and a second head-to-head race pitting Mr. Kennedy against President Trump. Both parties pledge that whoever performs weakest against President Trump in a two-man contest will drop out of the presidential race.
Obviously, Biden didn’t accept the pledge. Interestingly, President Biden dropped the hammer on May 15, 2024, to drop out of the commission on presidential debates and agreed with Trump to a corrupt bargain for a CNN debate on June 27th. The terms with CNN were derived to force Kennedy out of the match-up.
What options did the Team Kennedy campaign have once the debate bomb detonated in mid-May 2024? We might list three as follows:
Option 1: Accelerate ballot access everywhere and hopefully qualify for the debate if CNN would have the morals to uphold the qualification criteria (or be persuaded through lawsuits alleging unfair campaign contributions via FEC regulations to the major parties). Use this strategy as the base pathway assuming Kennedy can win a pathway to 270 electoral college votes in a three-way race (very low probability).
Option 2: Go all-in on a handful of states (select a mix of red and blue states) to peel off electoral college votes to try to block both candidates from reaching 270 and push the election to the House of Representatives as a contingent election, which has happened twice in American history (also a low probability).
Option 3: Figure something else out.
The campaign pursued option #1 and was denied access to the debate. Never willing to back down, Kennedy booked a website called therealdebate.com, enlisted the promise of Elon Musk to livestream The Real Debate on the X platform, invited journalist John Stossel to host the cut-in/cut-out version of the debate where Kennedy would answer each question, and then delivered his message in clear contrast to Trump and Biden. The Real Debate had about 11 million impressions in the early days after the event. Biden self-destructed, throwing the DNC into turmoil. You know the rest.
We will pick up the remaining portion of the RFK Jr. impact in Part 7.
Notes:
The Common Sense Papers are an offering by Common Sense 250, which proposes a method to realign the two-party system with the creation of a new political superstructure that circumvents the current dysfunctional duopoly. The goal is to heal political divisions and reboot the American political system for an effective federal government.
Thank you for chronicling the campaign.