Election Reflections 2024: The Irony of Losing Choices
Part 2
Election Reflections 2024: The Irony of Losing Choices
The November 2024 issue of Ballot Access News, published by Richard Winger, ran with this headline:
Least Voter Choice For U.S. House Since 1990
And Least Choice for Legislative Races Since at Least 1986
That’s right. At the November 5th election of 2024, voters had the fewest candidates for U.S. House on their ballots since 1990. For state legislative races, the situation was even worse. As far back as the available data go (1988), the number of candidates running for state legislature is at a low point. Why?
Answer: fewer minor party and independent candidates. According to the news article:
The number of independents running for U.S. House this year is only 57, the lowest since 2004. And the number of minor party candidates for U.S. House is only 155, the second lowest since 1990 (only 2022 was worse, with 139).1
What caused the shrinkage in candidates on the ballot? Courts and legislatures. Legislatures made ballot access more difficult in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, and Texas. The top-two systems in California (2012) and Washington state (2008) are also to blame. When challenges have been brought to court, the courts have been lazy in striking down the laws that tend to reinforce the power slowly accumulating in many one-party states.
The irony of losing choices on the ballot is that more Americans identify as Independent than at any time in many decades. Also, the desire for a third option among parties has floated between 56% and 63% in various polls for the past decade.2
Just when voters are hungry for change and looking for more options, the field is shrinking.
But Independents are Winning if You Know Where to Find Them
A bright spot in 2024 comes from GoodParty.org, which is not a political party, but a tech firm with a mission. GoodParty.org provides the structure, grassroots support, and tools to make it possible to run a winning campaign without the baggage and habits of the two major parties. They want to make people matter more than money in our democracy with free AI-powered campaign tools for independent and minor party candidates.
According to a press release on November 14th, GoodParty.org is building momentum:
So far this year, 3,120 candidates empowered by GoodParty.org have won their elections at the local and state levels. All of these candidates pledged to run Independent, people-powered, anti-corruption, and civil campaigns for elected office. Now, they are going on to serve their communities with integrity.3
Which states had the most winning Independents in state & local races?
Minnesota: 941 winning candidates
California: 355 winning candidates
Michigan: 318 winning candidates
Kentucky: 156 winning candidates
Florida: 128 winning candidates
Virginia: 125 winning candidates
Oregon: 110 winning candidates
New Jersey: 105 winning candidates
Texas: 83 winning candidates
Arizona: 81 winning candidates
And what offices are being filled by these winning candidates?
City Council: 1,124 winning candidates
School Board: 939 winning candidates
Other Local Offices: 352 winning candidates
Mayor: 251 winning candidates
Town Council: 201 winning candidates
Only two GoodParty.org candidates won races for state House of Representatives out of 5,791 seats up for grabs. Last point, the 3,120 independent winners comprise a tiny fraction of the 500,000 total elected offices in the United States.
The Presidential Race and the RFK Jr. Pivot
Okay, back to the big leagues of politics. We conclude this post with some comments about the 2024 presidential race (note: Parts 3, 6, and 7 on Election Reflections will cover this in more detail).
The election cycle of 2024 witnessed the highest profile independent run for the White House since the attempt by Ross Perot in 1992. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced his run for the presidency on April 19th, 2023 as a Democratic challenger to President Joe Biden. After being shut out of fair opportunities to compete in the Democratic primary, Kennedy pivoted to an independent run on October 9th, 2023.
At times, Kennedy polled in the mid-teens nationally, with some states polling north of 20% in three-way races. After being blocked from presidential debate participation through corrupt bargains, Kennedy suspended his race on August 23rd, 2024, and threw his support behind Donald Trump.
Kennedy did all the work necessary to qualify for 50-state ballot access. He faced legal challenges the whole way, often winning at each step. He lost ballot access in the state of New York on a legal technicality. Once he suspended his race, he made great efforts to withdraw his name from the ballots of every swing state and many other safe states in the electoral college. Again, the irony of this is that voters and volunteers who fought hard to get his name on the ballot, in many cases, lost that choice as the political dynamics unfolded.
Kennedy ultimately received over 750,000 votes (0.5% of the popular vote) from just 31 states where he remained on the ballot. He told all of his supporters to vote for Donald Trump.
Conclusion
The trends for independent politics are mixed. Fewer candidates running for Congress and state legislatures, growing independent wins in more local races for city council and school board, and ballot access challenges that continue to tighten the grip that Republicans and Democrats hold on the system for major partisan offices.
At a time when voters want better choices, the two major parties are fighting to keep politics a two-player game. Up next, we will consider how Trump won the White House and what it means for the next four years.
Notes:
The Common Sense Papers are an offering by Common Sense 250, which proposes a method to realign the two-party system with the creation of a new political superstructure that circumvents the current dysfunctional duopoly. The goal is to heal political divisions and reboot the American political system for an effective federal government.
Richard Winger, “Least Voter Choice For U.S. House Since 1990,” Ballot Access News, November 1, 2024, Volume 40, Number 6, 1.
Mary Claire Evans, “Support for a Third Political Party Dips,” Gallup, October 1, 2024, https://news.gallup.com/poll/651278/support-third-political-party-dips.aspx (accessed December 4, 2024).
Emily Dexter, “How GoodParty.org Powered 3,120 Independents to Victory in 2024,” GoodParty.org, November 14, 2024, https://goodparty.org/blog/article/3120-independents-victory-2024 (accessed December 4, 2024).
Many people run for local, non-partisan races with the right intention to 'serve their communities and win. Unfortunately, once in office things begin to change for most. They like the attention and being treated as a local 'rock star.' And, they realize their is a career path which can pay well if they move up into the partisan larger races like county, state for even federal.
How to do that? They inquire and quickly learn that you need a recognized party endorsement to win at the next level.
How do you get such and endorsement? By proving your loyalty to the party leaders. So you learn to go along with their priorities so you can get along and move up the party pecking ladder.
Very interesting! I'd never heard of GoodParty.org before! Thanks! Excellent article.